Syria conflict: Russia-Turkey brokered truce comes into force

A nationwide ceasefire between Syrian
government forces and rebel groups has come
into effect.
The truce, brokered by Russia and Turkey, which
will act as guarantors, began at midnight (22:00
GMT).
The deal includes a large number of rebel groups
but not jihadists such as the so-called Islamic
State, or the Kurdish YPG.
If the ceasefire holds, peace talks are scheduled
to be held in Kazakhstan within a month.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-
based group monitoring the conflict, said the
ceasefire appeared to be initially holding, though
it reported gunfire in Deraa and Quneitra
provinces.
At least 300,000 people are believed to have been
killed in fighting that followed the uprising against
President Bashar al-Assad in March 2011.
A further four million have sought refuge in
neighbouring states or Europe.
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Why is there a war in Syria?
Will the ceasefire hold?
The diplomatic noises are encouraging, and even
the rebel groups involved have suggested it could
succeed.
However, previous ceasefire initiatives this year
brokered by the UN, or the US acting with Russia,
quickly collapsed.
The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin had
spoken to Bashar al-Assad and that the Syrian
leader had said he was "committed to
implementing" the agreement.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said there
was "a real chance to reach a political settlement
to end the bloodshed and establish the future of
the country".
The fact that the rebels have been losing ground
may help.
The High Negotiations Committee (HNC), the
umbrella group representing Syria's political and
armed opposition factions, admitted on Thursday
that, because of the rebels' limited resources, it
was "not possible to continue" the fight.
One rebel commander told Reuters news agency:
"This time I have confidence in its seriousness.
There is new international input."
Who is included in the ceasefire deal?
On the one side, Syrian government forces, their
factional allies and the Russian military.
On the other, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a loose
alliance of several moderate rebel factions, plus
other groups under the HNC. FSA spokesman
Osama Abu Zaid said there were 13 armed
opposition factions in all who had signed up.
The Russian defence ministry listed seven of the
main rebel groups included in the truce as Faylaq
al-Sham; Ahrar al-Sham; Jaysh al-Islam;
Thuwwar Ahl al-Sham; Jaysh al-Mujahidin;
Jaysh Idlib and al-Jabhah al-Shamiyah.
Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam (Army of
Islam) are the key names, neither of them part of
the FSA.
However, reflecting the confusion of the Syrian
conflict, Reuters later quoted one spokesman for
Ahrar al-Sham as saying that the group had
reservations and had not signed the deal.
Who is not included?
Jihadists. So-called Islamic State (IS) "and the
groups affiliated to them" are not part of the
agreement, Syria's army confirmed.
It also said Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly the
Nusra Front) was excluded. However, some rebel
officials told Reuters it was included in the deal,
giving a hint of the complications that lie ahead.
This is because JFS is intrinsically linked in Idlib
province to groups that have signed up to the
truce.
The FSA also said that the deal did not include
the Kurdish Popular Protection Units (YPG).
The YPG, along with other Kurdish militias,
controls a large area of northern Syria up the
Turkish border. It is regarded by Turkey as a
terrorist organisation and an extension of the
banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Turkey's PM Binali Yildirim later confirmed that
"no group that we regard as a terror organisation
will sit around the negotiating table".
What are the terms of the deal and where does it
cover?
It is nominally nationwide, although that really
only covers the areas where the sides who have
signed up to the truce have a presence.
Looking at the map, there are large swathes
under both jihadist and Kurdish control.
One area that is included is the rebel-held area of
Ghouta in eastern Damascus, where government
forces have been advancing in recent months.
Announcing the deal in Moscow, Mr Putin said
there were three key points:
Ceasefire between the two sides
Measures for overseeing the truce
An agreement to start peace talks
Under the terms of the deal, the peace talks
would begin within a month of the ceasefire
taking effect - and holding - and would be held in
the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana.
What has the international reaction been?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said a
"window of opportunity" had been created that
"should not be wasted". He vowed to continue
fighting IS and "terrorist groups".
UN envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, said he
hoped the deal would save lives and improve aid
delivery.
"These developments should contribute to
inclusive and productive intra-Syrian negotiations
to be convened under UN auspices on 8
February," he said.
The US state department said the deal was a
"positive development" which it hoped would be
"implemented and fully respected by all parties".
Are Turkey and Russia now allies?
On 24 November 2015, Turkey shot down a
Russian warplane on its border with Syria and a
big diplomatic freeze ensued.
But tough Russian economic sanctions - and
Turkey's increasing frustration with its Nato allies
- led to a gradual thawing over 2016.
Turkey even turned a blind eye to the advance of
Syrian forces on Aleppo and now the pair have
brokered a truce.
There were even reports on Thursday that
Russian aircraft had bombed IS targets near al-
Bab - where Turkish troops are encircling the
jihadists - shortly after President Erdogan had
complained about the lack of Nato air support.
Still, problems remain. The sides have not spelled
out jointly which rebel groups they believe are
involved in the truce.
Turkey also says foreign fighter groups, including
Hezbollah, need to leave Syria. This will not sit
well with Iran, a major backer of the Assad
government.
And it is unclear whether Ankara is prepared to
give up on its long-term goal of ousting Mr
Assad.

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